Business & Strategy · Assumption Stress Test
Assumption Flip Workshop
Find the assumption carrying a strategy, flip it, and see whether the recommendation survives before resources are committed.
ORIGINAL BY ZAIN HASEEB · 1.0.0 · DEVELOPED FROM STRAITEGY HUB AUDIENCE AND OPERATING FRAMEWORKS WITH AI-ASSISTED DRAFTING.
Copy-ready prompt
Stress-test this strategy by attacking the assumptions capable of changing the decision.
STRATEGY OR RECOMMENDATION: {{STRATEGY}}
EVIDENCE USED: {{EVIDENCE}}
CONSTRAINTS: {{CONSTRAINTS}}
WHAT SUCCESS MEANS: {{SUCCESS}}
Decompose the strategy into no more than seven assumptions. For each, state whether it is sourced, derived, inferred, or guessed. Rank assumptions by probability of being wrong multiplied by cost if wrong.
For the top three, flip the assumption and rebuild the conclusion under the opposite world. Identify an alternative explanation for the same evidence, an incentive that may be biasing the recommendation, and a concrete reversal condition. Return: what survives, what breaks, what evidence is worth collecting next, and whether to proceed, modify, stage, or stop. Do not produce a generic risk list. Spend most of the analysis on the smallest assumption set capable of invalidating the call.